Two more California Dairy workers confirmed to be H5N1 infected

[RonO]

https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html

I can't find any announcement, but the CDC has increased the California
numbers by 2 today (Dec. 2). The USDA has increased the number of herds
infected to 689, but I do not know what states are affected because they
haven't updated their data sheet. It still has the old Nov 27 confirmed
data that they put up last Friday.

Ron Okimoto

[RonO]

Post by RonO
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html
I can't find any announcement, but the CDC has increased the California
numbers by 2 today (Dec. 2).  The USDA has increased the number of herds
infected to 689, but I do not know what states are affected because they
haven't updated their data sheet.  It still has the old Nov 27 confirmed
data that they put up last Friday.
Ron Okimoto

https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-11-29/raw-farm-sales-suspended

Another batch of raw milk products came up positive from the same dairy
that tested positive. Initial bulk milk tank testing was negative, but
the farm has identify several asymptomatic positive cows. So the farm
was infected and didn't know it.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/california-reports-h5n1-more-retail-raw-milk-virus-infects-2-more-dairy

CIDRAP notes that two more California dairy workers have been confirmed.
California isn't announcing positives until they are confirmed and it
takes the CDC quite a while to confirm cases. They may still be working
on the original batch of samples submitted by California around a month
ago. I recall a news article that claimed that 39 samples had been
submitted, and the CDC has only released 30 positives and 1 that could
not be confirmed. That would mean that the CDC is still working on 8
samples. It could be that the article got the numbers wrong, or I
misinterpreted number of workers tested and submitted. California
stopped announcing how many workers that they had tested.

CIDRAP also claims more poultry flocks have gone down in 3 states, but
doesn't name the states or the size of the poultry flocks. Washington
should have identified their positive dairy herds by now, and it is
pretty sad that they haven't bothered to test their dairies.

Ron Okimoto

[RonO]

Post by RonO

Post by RonO
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html
I can't find any announcement, but the CDC has increased the
California numbers by 2 today (Dec. 2).  The USDA has increased the
number of herds infected to 689, but I do not know what states are
affected because they haven't updated their data sheet.  It still has
the old Nov 27 confirmed data that they put up last Friday.
Ron Okimoto

https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-11-29/raw-farm-sales-
suspended
Another batch of raw milk products came up positive from the same dairy
that tested positive.  Initial bulk milk tank testing was negative, but
the farm has identify several asymptomatic positive cows.  So the farm
was infected and didn't know it.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/california-reports-
h5n1-more-retail-raw-milk-virus-infects-2-more-dairy
CIDRAP notes that two more California dairy workers have been confirmed.
 California isn't announcing positives until they are confirmed and it
takes the CDC quite a while to confirm cases.  They may still be working
on the original batch of samples submitted by California around a month
ago.  I recall a news article that claimed that 39 samples had been
submitted, and the CDC has only released 30 positives and 1 that could
not be confirmed.  That would mean that the CDC is still working on 8
samples.  It could be that the article got the numbers wrong, or I
misinterpreted number of workers tested and submitted.  California
stopped announcing how many workers that they had tested.
CIDRAP also claims more poultry flocks have gone down in 3 states, but
doesn't name the states or the size of the poultry flocks.  Washington
should have identified their positive dairy herds by now, and it is
pretty sad that they haven't bothered to test their dairies.
Ron Okimoto

It was actually 6 states that had poultry flocks go down. All 6 should
be looking for their infected dairy herds to try to stop the spread.
Utah was stupid and stopped testing after they found 8 infected herds in
the same county as the infected poultry farm. They knew that they
should have implemented contact tracing or bulk milk tank testing like
California to find all the other infected herds, but like all the other
states they went into denial. Now another poultry farm in another Utah
county has gone down with the dairy virus. More poultry workers are
being exposed to the virus, and it could have been prevented. The price
of eggs is going up because of the stupid way in which the USDA and CDC
have handled this fiasco.

The stupidest thing is that the USDA and CDC are letting the states get
away with this stupid behavior because they keep calling the dairy
epidemic "avian influenza" when they know that it has been primarily a
dairy infection since March.

Dairies are spreading the virus because dairy cattle shed huge amounts
of virus, and dairy workers get infected and go to other farms
(including poultry farms) and infect the new farms. Transport of cattle
has been limited to tested and negative animals since April, but the
virus still spreads to states that did not get cattle and poultry farms
that obviously did not get cattle. It isn't rocket science, but the CDC
and USDA have refused to face reality since the beginning when the first
dairy worker was confirmed to be infected and was shedding live
culturable virus.

Ron Okimoto

[RonO]

Post by RonO

Post by RonO
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html
I can't find any announcement, but the CDC has increased the
California numbers by 2 today (Dec. 2).  The USDA has increased the
number of herds infected to 689, but I do not know what states are
affected because they haven't updated their data sheet.  It still has
the old Nov 27 confirmed data that they put up last Friday.
Ron Okimoto

https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-11-29/raw-farm-sales-
suspended
Another batch of raw milk products came up positive from the same
dairy that tested positive.  Initial bulk milk tank testing was
negative, but the farm has identify several asymptomatic positive
cows.  So the farm was infected and didn't know it.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/california-
reports- h5n1-more-retail-raw-milk-virus-infects-2-more-dairy
CIDRAP notes that two more California dairy workers have been
confirmed.   California isn't announcing positives until they are
confirmed and it takes the CDC quite a while to confirm cases.  They
may still be working on the original batch of samples submitted by
California around a month ago.  I recall a news article that claimed
that 39 samples had been submitted, and the CDC has only released 30
positives and 1 that could not be confirmed.  That would mean that the
CDC is still working on 8 samples.  It could be that the article got
the numbers wrong, or I misinterpreted number of workers tested and
submitted.  California stopped announcing how many workers that they
had tested.
CIDRAP also claims more poultry flocks have gone down in 3 states, but
doesn't name the states or the size of the poultry flocks.  Washington
should have identified their positive dairy herds by now, and it is
pretty sad that they haven't bothered to test their dairies.
Ron Okimoto

It was actually 6 states that had poultry flocks go down.  All 6 should
be looking for their infected dairy herds to try to stop the spread.
Utah was stupid and stopped testing after they found 8 infected herds in
the same county as the infected poultry farm.  They knew that they
should have implemented contact tracing or bulk milk tank testing like
California to find all the other infected herds, but like all the other
states they went into denial.  Now another poultry farm in another Utah
county has gone down with the dairy virus.  More poultry workers are
being exposed to the virus, and it could have been prevented.  The price
of eggs is going up because of the stupid way in which the USDA and CDC
have handled this fiasco.
The stupidest thing is that the USDA and CDC are letting the states get
away with this stupid behavior because they keep calling the dairy
epidemic "avian influenza" when they know that it has been primarily a
dairy infection since March.
Dairies are spreading the virus because dairy cattle shed huge amounts
of virus, and dairy workers get infected and go to other farms
(including poultry farms) and infect the new farms.  Transport of cattle
has been limited to tested and negative animals since April, but the
virus still spreads to states that did not get cattle and poultry farms
that obviously did not get cattle.  It isn't rocket science, but the CDC
and USDA have refused to face reality since the beginning when the first
dairy worker was confirmed to be infected and was shedding live
culturable virus.
Ron Okimoto

USDA had posted 6 more dairies (total 488), but the sample numbers go
to 508, so there are more in the que.

It has likely been over 2 weeks since the USDA was supposed to start
bulk milk tank testing, and those results should be coming in. 27% of
the California dairies are already known to be positive. The raw milk
issue indicates that bulk milk tank testing can miss positive herds. I
do not know how they are going to get around this, but they claim that
the herds should be tested on a routine basis, hopefully around once a
week, so even if they miss a herd it will likely test positive in a
couple of testings if there are infected cattle on the farm.

Ron Okimoto

[*Hemidactylus*]

Post by RonO

Post by RonO

Post by RonO
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html
I can't find any announcement, but the CDC has increased the
California numbers by 2 today (Dec. 2).  The USDA has increased the
number of herds infected to 689, but I do not know what states are
affected because they haven't updated their data sheet.  It still has
the old Nov 27 confirmed data that they put up last Friday.
Ron Okimoto

https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-11-29/raw-farm-sales-
suspended
Another batch of raw milk products came up positive from the same
dairy that tested positive.  Initial bulk milk tank testing was
negative, but the farm has identify several asymptomatic positive
cows.  So the farm was infected and didn't know it.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/california-
reports- h5n1-more-retail-raw-milk-virus-infects-2-more-dairy
CIDRAP notes that two more California dairy workers have been
confirmed.   California isn't announcing positives until they are
confirmed and it takes the CDC quite a while to confirm cases.  They
may still be working on the original batch of samples submitted by
California around a month ago.  I recall a news article that claimed
that 39 samples had been submitted, and the CDC has only released 30
positives and 1 that could not be confirmed.  That would mean that the
CDC is still working on 8 samples.  It could be that the article got
the numbers wrong, or I misinterpreted number of workers tested and
submitted.  California stopped announcing how many workers that they
had tested.
CIDRAP also claims more poultry flocks have gone down in 3 states, but
doesn't name the states or the size of the poultry flocks.  Washington
should have identified their positive dairy herds by now, and it is
pretty sad that they haven't bothered to test their dairies.
Ron Okimoto

It was actually 6 states that had poultry flocks go down.  All 6 should
be looking for their infected dairy herds to try to stop the spread.
Utah was stupid and stopped testing after they found 8 infected herds in
the same county as the infected poultry farm.  They knew that they
should have implemented contact tracing or bulk milk tank testing like
California to find all the other infected herds, but like all the other
states they went into denial.  Now another poultry farm in another Utah
county has gone down with the dairy virus.  More poultry workers are
being exposed to the virus, and it could have been prevented.  The price
of eggs is going up because of the stupid way in which the USDA and CDC
have handled this fiasco.
The stupidest thing is that the USDA and CDC are letting the states get
away with this stupid behavior because they keep calling the dairy
epidemic "avian influenza" when they know that it has been primarily a
dairy infection since March.
Dairies are spreading the virus because dairy cattle shed huge amounts
of virus, and dairy workers get infected and go to other farms
(including poultry farms) and infect the new farms.  Transport of cattle
has been limited to tested and negative animals since April, but the
virus still spreads to states that did not get cattle and poultry farms
that obviously did not get cattle.  It isn't rocket science, but the CDC
and USDA have refused to face reality since the beginning when the first
dairy worker was confirmed to be infected and was shedding live
culturable virus.
Ron Okimoto

USDA had posted 6 more dairies (total 488), but the sample numbers go
to 508, so there are more in the que.
It has likely been over 2 weeks since the USDA was supposed to start
bulk milk tank testing, and those results should be coming in. 27% of
the California dairies are already known to be positive. The raw milk
issue indicates that bulk milk tank testing can miss positive herds. I
do not know how they are going to get around this, but they claim that
the herds should be tested on a routine basis, hopefully around once a
week, so even if they miss a herd it will likely test positive in a
couple of testings if there are infected cattle on the farm.

Can the cattle flu variants evolve away from the test resulting in false
negatives?

[RonO]

Post by *Hemidactylus*

Post by RonO

Post by RonO

Post by RonO
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html
I can't find any announcement, but the CDC has increased the
California numbers by 2 today (Dec. 2).  The USDA has increased the
number of herds infected to 689, but I do not know what states are
affected because they haven't updated their data sheet.  It still has
the old Nov 27 confirmed data that they put up last Friday.
Ron Okimoto

https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-11-29/raw-farm-sales-
suspended
Another batch of raw milk products came up positive from the same
dairy that tested positive.  Initial bulk milk tank testing was
negative, but the farm has identify several asymptomatic positive
cows.  So the farm was infected and didn't know it.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/california-
reports- h5n1-more-retail-raw-milk-virus-infects-2-more-dairy
CIDRAP notes that two more California dairy workers have been
confirmed.   California isn't announcing positives until they are
confirmed and it takes the CDC quite a while to confirm cases.  They
may still be working on the original batch of samples submitted by
California around a month ago.  I recall a news article that claimed
that 39 samples had been submitted, and the CDC has only released 30
positives and 1 that could not be confirmed.  That would mean that the
CDC is still working on 8 samples.  It could be that the article got
the numbers wrong, or I misinterpreted number of workers tested and
submitted.  California stopped announcing how many workers that they
had tested.
CIDRAP also claims more poultry flocks have gone down in 3 states, but
doesn't name the states or the size of the poultry flocks.  Washington
should have identified their positive dairy herds by now, and it is
pretty sad that they haven't bothered to test their dairies.
Ron Okimoto

It was actually 6 states that had poultry flocks go down.  All 6 should
be looking for their infected dairy herds to try to stop the spread.
Utah was stupid and stopped testing after they found 8 infected herds in
the same county as the infected poultry farm.  They knew that they
should have implemented contact tracing or bulk milk tank testing like
California to find all the other infected herds, but like all the other
states they went into denial.  Now another poultry farm in another Utah
county has gone down with the dairy virus.  More poultry workers are
being exposed to the virus, and it could have been prevented.  The price
of eggs is going up because of the stupid way in which the USDA and CDC
have handled this fiasco.
The stupidest thing is that the USDA and CDC are letting the states get
away with this stupid behavior because they keep calling the dairy
epidemic "avian influenza" when they know that it has been primarily a
dairy infection since March.
Dairies are spreading the virus because dairy cattle shed huge amounts
of virus, and dairy workers get infected and go to other farms
(including poultry farms) and infect the new farms.  Transport of cattle
has been limited to tested and negative animals since April, but the
virus still spreads to states that did not get cattle and poultry farms
that obviously did not get cattle.  It isn't rocket science, but the CDC
and USDA have refused to face reality since the beginning when the first
dairy worker was confirmed to be infected and was shedding live
culturable virus.
Ron Okimoto

USDA had posted 6 more dairies (total 488), but the sample numbers go
to 508, so there are more in the que.
It has likely been over 2 weeks since the USDA was supposed to start
bulk milk tank testing, and those results should be coming in. 27% of
the California dairies are already known to be positive. The raw milk
issue indicates that bulk milk tank testing can miss positive herds. I
do not know how they are going to get around this, but they claim that
the herds should be tested on a routine basis, hopefully around once a
week, so even if they miss a herd it will likely test positive in a
couple of testings if there are infected cattle on the farm.

Can the cattle flu variants evolve away from the test resulting in false
negatives?

It can, but the current test involves 2 PCR tests. One test has primers
specific for the H5 gene. If there are changes in the primer annealing
sequences the test could fail, but the second test has a primer set
specific for a different part of the H5 gene. It is unlikely that
mutations will occur in both primer set sequences. I recall that they
had two H5 specific tests instead of having one for H5 and the other for
N1, so they have to do additional testing to determine if it is H5N1.
They determine if it is the dairy recombinant virus by genome sequencing.

Any sequence changes in the primer sequences might alter the H
designations of the virus, and it might become a new lineage, but my
guess is that they would just redesign the primer sets so that they
could still identify the current H5 designation. The Missouri case had
two amino acid substitutions in the H5 gene that decreased antibody
binding using antibodies to the cultured H5 virus 100 fold, and they had
to make a synthetic H5 gene with those amino acid substitutions in it to
make antigen to detect the antibodies in the patient's blood. They
still called it H5 even though the old H5 probably would not work as a
vaccine for the virus. The original dairy virus was neutralized by the
H5 vaccine strain that was available and they stockpiled a million doses
of it, but the virus has mutated since then.

They need to track how the virus is changing and prepare to make a
vaccine from whatever makes the jump to humans.

Ron Okimoto

[RonO]

Post by *Hemidactylus*

Post by RonO

Post by RonO
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html
I can't find any announcement, but the CDC has increased the
California numbers by 2 today (Dec. 2).  The USDA has increased the
number of herds infected to 689, but I do not know what states are
affected because they haven't updated their data sheet.  It still has
the old Nov 27 confirmed data that they put up last Friday.
Ron Okimoto

https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-11-29/raw-farm-sales-
suspended
Another batch of raw milk products came up positive from the same
dairy that tested positive.  Initial bulk milk tank testing was
negative, but the farm has identify several asymptomatic positive
cows.  So the farm was infected and didn't know it.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/california-
reports- h5n1-more-retail-raw-milk-virus-infects-2-more-dairy
CIDRAP notes that two more California dairy workers have been
confirmed.   California isn't announcing positives until they are
confirmed and it takes the CDC quite a while to confirm cases.  They
may still be working on the original batch of samples submitted by
California around a month ago.  I recall a news article that claimed
that 39 samples had been submitted, and the CDC has only released 30
positives and 1 that could not be confirmed.  That would mean that the
CDC is still working on 8 samples.  It could be that the article got
the numbers wrong, or I misinterpreted number of workers tested and
submitted.  California stopped announcing how many workers that they
had tested.
CIDRAP also claims more poultry flocks have gone down in 3 states, but
doesn't name the states or the size of the poultry flocks.  Washington
should have identified their positive dairy herds by now, and it is
pretty sad that they haven't bothered to test their dairies.
Ron Okimoto

It was actually 6 states that had poultry flocks go down.  All 6 should
be looking for their infected dairy herds to try to stop the spread.
Utah was stupid and stopped testing after they found 8 infected herds in
the same county as the infected poultry farm.  They knew that they
should have implemented contact tracing or bulk milk tank testing like
California to find all the other infected herds, but like all the other
states they went into denial.  Now another poultry farm in another Utah
county has gone down with the dairy virus.  More poultry workers are
being exposed to the virus, and it could have been prevented.  The price
of eggs is going up because of the stupid way in which the USDA and CDC
have handled this fiasco.
The stupidest thing is that the USDA and CDC are letting the states get
away with this stupid behavior because they keep calling the dairy
epidemic "avian influenza" when they know that it has been primarily a
dairy infection since March.
Dairies are spreading the virus because dairy cattle shed huge amounts
of virus, and dairy workers get infected and go to other farms
(including poultry farms) and infect the new farms.  Transport of cattle
has been limited to tested and negative animals since April, but the
virus still spreads to states that did not get cattle and poultry farms
that obviously did not get cattle.  It isn't rocket science, but the CDC
and USDA have refused to face reality since the beginning when the first
dairy worker was confirmed to be infected and was shedding live
culturable virus.
Ron Okimoto

  USDA had posted 6 more dairies (total 488), but the sample numbers go
to 508, so there are more in the que.
It has likely been over 2 weeks since the USDA was supposed to start
bulk milk tank testing, and those results should be coming in.  27% of
the California dairies are already known to be positive.  The raw milk
issue indicates that bulk milk tank testing can miss positive herds.  I
do not know how they are going to get around this, but they claim that
the herds should be tested on a routine basis, hopefully around once a
week, so even if they miss a herd it will likely test positive in a
couple of testings if there are infected cattle on the farm.

Can the cattle flu variants evolve away from the test resulting in false
negatives?

It can, but the current test involves 2 PCR tests.  One test has primers
specific for the H5 gene.  If there are changes in the primer annealing
sequences the test could fail, but the second test has a primer set
specific for a different part of the H5 gene.  It is unlikely that
mutations will occur in both primer set sequences.  I recall that they
had two H5 specific tests instead of having one for H5 and the other for
N1, so they have to do additional testing to determine if it is H5N1.
They determine if it is the dairy recombinant virus by genome sequencing.
Any sequence changes in the primer sequences might alter the H
designations of the virus, and it might become a new lineage, but my
guess is that they would just redesign the primer sets so that they
could still identify the current H5 designation.  The Missouri case had
two amino acid substitutions in the H5 gene that decreased antibody
binding using antibodies to the cultured H5 virus 100 fold, and they had
to make a synthetic H5 gene with those amino acid substitutions in it to
make antigen to detect the antibodies in the patient's blood.  They
still called it H5 even though the old H5 probably would not work as a
vaccine for the virus.  The original dairy virus was neutralized by the
H5 vaccine strain that was available and they stockpiled a million doses
of it, but the virus has mutated since then.
They need to track how the virus is changing and prepare to make a
vaccine from whatever makes the jump to humans.
Ron Okimoto

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/avian-flu-infects-another-california-dairy-worker-more-raw-milk-positives

Another California dairy worker has been confirmed to be infected (32
total). The CDC is still refusing to acknowledge the antibody positive
dairy workers from Texas, Michigan, and Colorado, and close contact of
the Missouri patient as having been infected. Their total is 58, but
should be 70.

The number of infected herds in California has gone up to 493, and
CIDRAP is noting that another batch of raw milk was found to be
positive, but that is old news. That dairy has now tested positive
though previous bulk milk tank tests were negative. They have been
banned from selling unpasteurized milk until they are negative. They
need to test all their cows, get the infected off their farms, and test
their dairy workers in order to keep the virus off their farms.

Poultry in two more states have infected flocks (California and
Oklahoma). They need to identify all the infected herds in Oklahoma and
keep the virus off poultry farms. Oklahoma has known positive herds
that were verified to have been infected, but they never started contact
tracing and testing like California. California should know by now to
keep all dairy workers off of poultry farms, and I would include their
close contacts.

Ron Okimoto

[RonO]

Post by RonO

Post by *Hemidactylus*

Post by RonO

Post by RonO
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html
I can't find any announcement, but the CDC has increased the
California numbers by 2 today (Dec. 2).  The USDA has increased the
number of herds infected to 689, but I do not know what states are
affected because they haven't updated their data sheet.  It still has
the old Nov 27 confirmed data that they put up last Friday.
Ron Okimoto

https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-11-29/raw-farm-sales-
suspended
Another batch of raw milk products came up positive from the same
dairy that tested positive.  Initial bulk milk tank testing was
negative, but the farm has identify several asymptomatic positive
cows.  So the farm was infected and didn't know it.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/california-
reports- h5n1-more-retail-raw-milk-virus-infects-2-more-dairy
CIDRAP notes that two more California dairy workers have been
confirmed.   California isn't announcing positives until they are
confirmed and it takes the CDC quite a while to confirm cases.  They
may still be working on the original batch of samples submitted by
California around a month ago.  I recall a news article that claimed
that 39 samples had been submitted, and the CDC has only released 30
positives and 1 that could not be confirmed.  That would mean that the
CDC is still working on 8 samples.  It could be that the article got
the numbers wrong, or I misinterpreted number of workers tested and
submitted.  California stopped announcing how many workers that they
had tested.
CIDRAP also claims more poultry flocks have gone down in 3 states, but
doesn't name the states or the size of the poultry flocks.
Washington
should have identified their positive dairy herds by now, and it is
pretty sad that they haven't bothered to test their dairies.
Ron Okimoto

It was actually 6 states that had poultry flocks go down.  All 6 should
be looking for their infected dairy herds to try to stop the spread.
Utah was stupid and stopped testing after they found 8 infected herds in
the same county as the infected poultry farm.  They knew that they
should have implemented contact tracing or bulk milk tank testing like
California to find all the other infected herds, but like all the other
states they went into denial.  Now another poultry farm in another Utah
county has gone down with the dairy virus.  More poultry workers are
being exposed to the virus, and it could have been prevented.  The price
of eggs is going up because of the stupid way in which the USDA and CDC
have handled this fiasco.
The stupidest thing is that the USDA and CDC are letting the states get
away with this stupid behavior because they keep calling the dairy
epidemic "avian influenza" when they know that it has been primarily a
dairy infection since March.
Dairies are spreading the virus because dairy cattle shed huge amounts
of virus, and dairy workers get infected and go to other farms
(including poultry farms) and infect the new farms.  Transport of cattle
has been limited to tested and negative animals since April, but the
virus still spreads to states that did not get cattle and poultry farms
that obviously did not get cattle.  It isn't rocket science, but the CDC
and USDA have refused to face reality since the beginning when the first
dairy worker was confirmed to be infected and was shedding live
culturable virus.
Ron Okimoto

  USDA had posted 6 more dairies (total 488), but the sample numbers go
to 508, so there are more in the que.
It has likely been over 2 weeks since the USDA was supposed to start
bulk milk tank testing, and those results should be coming in.  27% of
the California dairies are already known to be positive.  The raw milk
issue indicates that bulk milk tank testing can miss positive herds.  I
do not know how they are going to get around this, but they claim that
the herds should be tested on a routine basis, hopefully around once a
week, so even if they miss a herd it will likely test positive in a
couple of testings if there are infected cattle on the farm.

Can the cattle flu variants evolve away from the test resulting in false
negatives?

It can, but the current test involves 2 PCR tests.  One test has
primers specific for the H5 gene.  If there are changes in the primer
annealing sequences the test could fail, but the second test has a
primer set specific for a different part of the H5 gene.  It is
unlikely that mutations will occur in both primer set sequences.  I
recall that they had two H5 specific tests instead of having one for
H5 and the other for N1, so they have to do additional testing to
determine if it is H5N1. They determine if it is the dairy recombinant
virus by genome sequencing.
Any sequence changes in the primer sequences might alter the H
designations of the virus, and it might become a new lineage, but my
guess is that they would just redesign the primer sets so that they
could still identify the current H5 designation.  The Missouri case
had two amino acid substitutions in the H5 gene that decreased
antibody binding using antibodies to the cultured H5 virus 100 fold,
and they had to make a synthetic H5 gene with those amino acid
substitutions in it to make antigen to detect the antibodies in the
patient's blood.  They still called it H5 even though the old H5
probably would not work as a vaccine for the virus.  The original
dairy virus was neutralized by the H5 vaccine strain that was
available and they stockpiled a million doses of it, but the virus has
mutated since then.
They need to track how the virus is changing and prepare to make a
vaccine from whatever makes the jump to humans.
Ron Okimoto

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/avian-flu-infects-
another-california-dairy-worker-more-raw-milk-positives
Another California dairy worker has been confirmed to be infected (32
total).  The CDC is still refusing to acknowledge the antibody positive
dairy workers from Texas, Michigan, and Colorado, and close contact of
the Missouri patient as having been infected.  Their total is 58, but
should be 70.
The number of infected herds in California has gone up to 493, and
CIDRAP is noting that another batch of raw milk was found to be
positive, but that is old news.  That dairy has now tested positive
though previous bulk milk tank tests were negative.  They have been
banned from selling unpasteurized milk until they are negative.  They
need to test all their cows, get the infected off their farms, and test
their dairy workers in order to keep the virus off their farms.
Poultry in two more states have infected flocks (California and
Oklahoma).  They need to identify all the infected herds in Oklahoma and
keep the virus off poultry farms.  Oklahoma has known positive herds
that were verified to have been infected, but they never started contact
tracing and testing like California.  California should know by now to
keep all dairy workers off of poultry farms, and I would include their
close contacts.
Ron Okimoto

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/hpai-confirmed-cases-livestock

The USDA updated their web site and there is now 504 positive California
herds listed. They may have caught up with their sample load because
there is an unbroken string of samples from 486 to 513. They are only
missing sample # 485, 479, 410 among the last 100 samples submitted for
confirmation. So that dairy industry expert that predicted 500 infected
herds in California by the end of November was only off by a few days.
The latest additions were confirmed 12/3/2024 according to the data sheet.

Early in November the USDA claimed that they were going to start bulk
milk tank testing in all affected states within 30 days, but they may
not have started, yet.

Ron Okimoto