Post by RonOPost by xPost by RonOhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-28/bird-flu-cases-
in- dairy-cows-roil-farmers-in-california
This Bloomberg article cites a dramatic increase in the number of
dairy herds infected in California, but the normal internet sources
do not back up this number at this time. The claim of 170 infected
herds is much higher than the USDA claim last Friday of 137.
The Bloomberg article notes that this is 40% of all infected herds
confirmed in the US at this time, but they do not note that this is
because no other state began contact tracing in order to identify
the infected herds. It is likely that the majority of infected
herds in all the other states were never identified because no one
wanted to determine that they were infected. Contact tracing was
never implimented anywhere else, and that is still the case. The
increased efforts to assist contact tracing to identify infected
herds undertaken by the USDA applies only to California at this time.
The California contact tracing is likely responsible for the
identification of two more herds in Idaho last week. These herds
were likely not identified by the current means that Idaho is
employing because they are relying on self reporting, hadn't self
reported an infected herd for over a month, and California had
tracked contact back to Idaho.
Ron Okimoto
So.
Pasteurization does NOT destroy the virus?
The CDC researchers tested the two most common pasteurization methods.
The most common method of heating milk to 72 degrees C for 15 to 20
seconds failed to reduce the detection of live virus to below
detection level. Infective virus was surviving that method, but the
63 degree C for 30 minute method did reduce the live virus to below
detection levels. The CDC methods did not fully replicate the
pasteurization methods, but the article recommended that the milk
supply should be tested in a more thorough manner than the FDA had
done to claim that the milk supply was safe. The CDC has never made a
big deal about this research and just published it in their Nov 2024
newsletter. It sounds like the USDA is going to redo the
pasteurization analysis at milk plants, at least, in California. The
claim is that they were going to do live virus assays at milk plants.
Post by xAvoid drinking milk or eating cheese?
Cheese is likely safe. The CDC did find that the virus survived in
refrigerated milk for at least 4 days.
Post by xThere is now a clearly testable way of showing that this
baby died because it drank that milk?
How the Missouri patient was infected is not known, but the patient
had the same symptoms exhibited by individuals that had ingested the
Asian H5N1 virus (drank goose blood) so milk cannot be ruled out. The
CDC refuses to acknowledge these symptoms of H5N1 infection that
occurred in Asia. They also refuse to accept that the antibody
detection screen confirmed that the household contact of the Missouri
patient that had the same symptoms had been infected by the dairy
virus. They note that the antibody assay "failed" even for the
patient that had been confirmed to be infected, and do not count the
close contact as "confirmed" infected. Like the infected patient
their close contact was only positive for one of the 3 antibody
assays, so that test can be considered to be a failure and it
determined that the Missouri patient and contact did not mount an
effective immune response against the virus. This just means that the
current antibody tests are not reliable for detecting past infections,
so there may not be an effective means of identifying people that have
been infected, but are no longer shedding virus. Previous research on
the Asian H5N1 virus indicated that some people were not mounting an
effective immune response to the virus, and had not produced
neutralizing antibodies though some H5 antibodies could be detected.
All of this would be less of an issue if the CDC and USDA had started
contact tracing and testing at the very beginning of the dairy
epidemic. California has demonstrated that contact tracing is very
effective in identifying more infected herds, and the USDA is now
assisting in that effort, but only in California. Contact tracing and
testing needs to be done in all states with known infected dairies, or
that have dairy virus infected poultry flocks because it has been
known from the start in Texas that the poultry farms get infected by
proximity to infected dairies (probably because some dairy workers on
infected farms also work on poultry farms).
The more infected dairies that are allowed to remain undetected the
more dairy workers will be infected, and the more poultry flocks and
poultry workers will be infected, but the USDA and CDC refuse to do
what needs to be done to identify the infected herds.
Ron Okimoto